This is a post I've been wanting to work on since football season started. It's half way through the season so you can call that procrastination. But my urge to inform and educate about those scum bags out there that sell football picks is still burning inside. If you've ever thought about "paying for football picks", please read this. Send this around if you've got a buddy who has thought about paying or is currently. Reading this may save you or them hundreds or thousands of dollars in the long run.
I know if you're a football fan and listen to the radio or read the newspaper you know the ads that say "Free winner tonight!", "I'm 7-0 on Monday Night Football so far!!", "Guarantee winner tonight or the rest of the NFL season is free!!", "I have my biggest play of the season going tonight and it won't lose!!", or "Call for my free recorded pick!!"
It all sounds too good to be true right? Pay the $50 for the pick, sell your house and your kids, bet on the winning game, and then you can buy a new house and car (whoops no kids). If things were that easy we all wouldn't have to have a real job and betting on sports would be like withdrawing money from an ATM. The only people who are making consistent money are the ones who sell the picks. The only ones losing money are the average joes who paid for a loser.
Guys who sell picks are known as "touts". In British English, a tout is any person who solicits business or employment in an importune manner. In America they're also known as assholes, pieces of shit, dumbasses, frauds, and loser. They're not in the business of winning. They're in the business of selling. Betting on sports in general, but mainly football because it's the most popular sport, is difficult in the long run.
Touts try to take out all the reserach and thinking that is necessary and give you a winner. They do it for you. It seems so easy right? You essentially have a 50-50 shot of winning. Pick a side and you win, lose, or push. Flipping a coin can will tell you which team to bet (I've sadly done that before). They just make it sound like it's a no brainer, a guaranteed winner, and that you're going to be extremely rich very quickly. A serious sports bettor knows that it's a marathon and not a sprint. You go through hot streaks and horrific cold ones. It takes discipline, betting within your means, and not chasing (betting larger on the next game to make up for losses).
This is how a tout typically will work. 99.9% of TOUTS are nothing more than marketing machines that use HIGH PRESSURE sales tactics to make you think that you need them. In reality they don't care who WINS or LOSES just as long as there are games.
They will call 500 people and tell 250 of them to play TEAM A and tell the other 250 to play TEAM B. They will then call those 250 winners and do it again. After giving you a few winners they will then pressure you into buying their premium season long package. They only need to convert a hand full of people into these expensive packages to make money. The ones that lost he'll call back and promise to make good and try to get them on board. Sounds sneaky right? It definitely is. Just think even if they signed up a tiny percentage that intial 500 they're making thousands of dollars.
If these guys were so sure about their abilities to find winners, why wouldn't they just bet on their games every week and be rich? Because it's not that easy to pick winners. Instead they hope the stupidity of the betting public will give them hard earned money.
Some touts will sell their picks and then in the future weeks lie about their record. They'll claim to be undefeated or have won way more than they have loss. Calling a tout honest is like saying innocent O.J.
There's so many touts out there but you've probably heard of one. His name is Brandon Lang and there was an average movie made about him called "Two for the Money" that starred Matthew McConaughey and Mr. "Hoo Ha" Al Pacino. He says he went on this amazing six year run picking winners (doubtful) and he had to tell his story. Now he's selling his picks to whoever will go to his website.
A couple weeks ago there was this little Monday Night Football game between the unstoppable Chicago Bears and the unbearable Arizona Cardinals. The Bears were favored by 14 points (meaning they would have to win by more than 14 points to win your Bears bet). Everyone was in love with the Bears. Brandon Lang released his "100 Dime MNF Game of the Year" on Chicago laying the points. That is a STRONG play for him. He's risking his reputation by putting out such a strong opinion on this game. Announcing a game with that title makes the general public think it's a LOCK. A sure thing. If there's one thing I've learned in betting football, there's no such thing as a lock. He even said in his write-up
Bottom line is when the smoke clears tonight, when the game is over, you will have witnessed greatness by the Bears again in front of a national tv audience. Monday night football is where normal players become stars. Well tonight, there will be a lot of stars for the Bears in a blowout of legendary porportions. The right side of this game tonight is Chicago without question and they will not disappoint. No way. They will destroy Matt Leinart and the Cardinals. I am finished with my "Portrait Of A Monday Night Blowout".
As well all known now, the Bears were who we thought they were!! But they didn't win by 14 points. The Cardinals showed up to play and sportsbooks and bookies made a killing on this game. Who would have thought the Cardinals could even score a touchdown? Add how much you would have paid for that game plus the money you lost. How pissed would you be?? He's not giving you a refund on anything. He's counting his cash and getting ready to sell another of his highly hyped up picks.
A couple weeks ago he gave Baltimore Ravens (+6) over Denver on Monday night. In week 6 his "40 Dime" play was Philadelphia (-3) over New Orleans. Last night he released Dallas Cowboys (-3) over the Giants as his top play. All three games loss. All were his top play he released for that particular day. How much do you think people lost because they bet large on his "top" play? As I prepared to write this I came across this person who posted this...
I lost $5000 following Brandon Lang and no more. I am done with this horrible crapper. So anyone have one game where they would bet their life on? I am going to drive to Vegas and either come home double my savings or live in my car in some casino parking lot, too broke to afford gas to drive back home.
Yeah I understand how idiotic this is... but I have some bills due next week and can't afford to money manage.
I never knew what a scammer this Brandon Lang is. He goes 1-2-1 on sunday and brags that he still made money because he won his 40 dime play and lectures about money management. But on saturday he went 2-1 and lost money but says how they were all 40 dime plays in his mind but he had to choose only one so he went with ND.... even though he keeps picking teams off a bye week as his 40 dime plays. What a joker.
Everytime he loses he has an excuse. Turnovers, bad coaching, stupid idiotic players (that's what he called McNair). That he was on the right side of all these games and that if it weren't for some bad breaks he would've won. No, you weren't on the ride side, you LOST douchebag!
Damn I made $15,000 earlier this year being exclusively a dog player and Lang is obviously just another hack that plays all favorites at least for his 40+ dime plays. I went against my own principle and lost big.
I regret the day I decided to check out his website.....
So now I have to chase........ I don't have a choice.
Sad story. Stupid on this guy's part for betting so large but he trusted Brandon for giving him winners. This is a perfect example of what happens. It happens with big bettors losing thousands or small bettors losing hundreds. Whenever you lose money, it stresses the hell out of you.
How do I know what Brandon picks? Because people post them free on gambling fourms. How do they know? I have no idea but if you look hard enough on forums then you will see people post these picks that touts sell. So why don't people just sign up to forums to look for them? Because some people don't have time to scour through the fourm to find it. They'll take the convenience to pay for the picks to be emailed or bought on the internet.
I only use Brandon as an example because he's one of the more well known touts out there. He certainly summarizes what they are like on a grand scale. Some are better and many are much worse. They all have their approaches.
Brandon sells his picks on his website. There are the ones that are like "boiler rooms" where they're calling and screaming at you over the phone to buy their picks. They're using all the sleazy sales techinques to get you to buy. They'll say "The rest of the season free if their pick loses!! I've never felt better about a game than tonight!!" That's after you pay hundreds of dollars for a loser so you get a season of losers for free. How do they have your number? That free 900# you call for a free recorded pick. They have your phone number now and they'll call you ever week trying to get your money. Don't believe me? Try calling it and then you'll have to start screening calls from those scum bags.
I have no doubt that there are some honest handicappers selling their picks but they are few and far between. What I can suggest to you if you are looking for some football picks are some gambling fourms. I've been following these places for years now it's a great way to learn how to pick games. Or you can find people sharing their own picks. Guys who are good at this and it's all free! Everyone's goal there is to win money. Of course they go cold once in awhile but there are other people you can follow.
Betting on sports is difficult in the long run. Sure you might win big betting on the Super Bowl. Everyone bets on the Super Bowl. It's just like going to Vegas. You go once in awhile and you hope to win. The house is always favored. They have the odds. You do have your hot streaks but in the long run the casino/sportsbook will take your money unless you are a disciplined bettor. I'll admit I haven't always been the most disciplined bettor. I've gotten better after I stopped betting (just kidding).
I hope you learned that you do not need to pay for football picks. In fact, you shouldn't at all. If you're dying for a winner, then just pick the game yourself. At least if you're wrong, you're not upset you paid some tout for a losing pick. If you're just betting small for some weekly action, then you don't need guys like this. My mom, who is 55 and wasn't even born in the USA, loves football. She talks like a sports bettor but still like an old mom. She picks games surprisingly well from time to time. I don't know her record for the Super Bowl, but don't bet against her. My point is, she can probably pick better than those touts out there. If she can, you can too. No need to pay anyone for that information. Trust me, no tout ever has "inside" information about a game as he claims.
Just don't pay the money to some guy in a cheap suit who promises you riches. They prey on the public and make a fortune off people like that. I'm just trying to make sure that's not you.
We'd love to hear your comments and/or opinions. If you submit them here, other visitors can read them, rate them and comment on them. An e-mail address is not required.
Click below to see contributions from other visitors to this page...
Paying for picks was always a stupid play Not rated yet
2006/10/26 at 1:06 pm Very well written and hopefully people will learn from it. Paying for picks was always a stupid play in my mind because the only …
Excellent post Not rated yet
2006/10/26 at 12:47 am excellent post. Although I have never bet professionally, my brothers and I make our picks every week and I know firsthand how …
From Never Pay for a Football Picks and I'll Tell You Why to NFL Archives | Sports Blog | College Football Archives | MLB Archives | NBA Archives | NCAA Basketball Archives | Soccer Archives | Olympics Archives | Stupid Athletes Archives | Other Archives |
[?] Subscribe To|
We are always very interested in reader comments about the site -- especially ideas about how to improve it.